Study Warns China’s Rare-Earth Monopoly Threatens U.S. Auto Security

A new Harvard working paper by Dr. Elaine Buckberg finds China’s control of rare-earth processing and magnet production now poses a tangible risk to U.S. auto manufacturing.
Using supply‑chain mapping, policy comparison and case studies, the analysis documents that China supplies roughly 91% of rare‑earth magnet materials, about 60% of magnet alloy production, and 55–90% of midstream processing across key battery metals.
When Beijing halted exports of seven critical rare earths in mid‑2025, several U.S. production lines-including at Ford-were temporarily idled, illustrating how export controls can translate directly into factory stoppages.
The paper flags China’s October 2025 expansion of export controls to 12 elements, including provisions that could apply extraterritorially to goods with minimal REE content, as a new escalation in trade leverage.
Policy implications are stark: U.S. EV and defense resilience requires rapid investment in domestic mining, separation, magnet production and recycling, plus coordinated allied supply‑chain initiatives. Technical paths such as alternative motor designs, reduced‑rare‑earth chemistries and improved magnet recycling are highlighted as strategic priorities.
Limitations acknowledged include a lack of quantitative price‑shock modeling and assumptions about the persistence of Chinese dominance; critics also view some policy prescriptions as politically charged.
Buckberg’s central conclusion: securing America’s automotive future depends on diversifying and de‑risking the rare‑earth and magnet supply chain now.