U.S. Section 232 Probe Targets Critical Minerals Supply Chain

The Commerce Department is conducting a Section 232 investigation ordered in April 2025 to determine whether processed critical minerals and derivative products threaten U.S. national security.

A final report is due by October 2025, with presidential decisions possible in early 2026. Options under consideration include tariffs or import limits, anti-circumvention measures, incentives for domestic processing, expanded stockpiling, and use of emergency authorities.

The U.S. remains highly dependent on imports: more than half of 46 non‑fuel mineral commodities are imported, and roughly 15 are essentially 100% import‑dependent. China dominates roughly 90% of global rare‑earth refining and a vertically integrated mine‑to‑magnet supply chain, and has tightened export controls and validated end‑user regimes that increasingly exclude U.S. defense contractors from feedstock.

Industry observers note the U.S. lacks a unified industrial mobilization comparable to China’s decades‑long buildout. MP Materials is the only current integrated mine‑to‑magnet project, but scaling heavy‑rare‑earth separations for dysprosium and terbium within a 24‑month window appears unlikely, raising the risk of near‑term supply crunches.

Washington is pursuing allied partnerships and a widened USGS critical minerals list to 60 entries, but analysts warn decisive, industrial‑scale action will be needed to close the gap with China.