Shifting defense posture in East Asia

Nuclear and conventional force postures across East Asia are changing rapidly, heightening strategic uncertainty and complicating arms-control efforts.
U.S. analysts report China has likely loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles into silo fields, which Beijing disputes, signaling faster modernization of long-range strike capabilities.
In Japan, public debate over nuclear options has intensified while Washington reiterates Tokyo’s role in nonproliferation. Separately, the U.S. is seeking permission to deploy and use heavy weapons at five Ground Self-Defense Force training sites to enhance joint readiness, conditional on local consent.
Policy responses are adapting to multi-domain threats: Tokyo’s new cybersecurity strategy creates coordinated operational paths for police, the Defense Ministry and the Self-Defense Forces to neutralize critical attacks, reflecting an integrated civil-military approach to resilience.
Broader indicators include U.S. initiatives to expand shipbuilding and class-based fleets, deeper bilateral security pacts (for example with New Zealand), and concerns about China’s strategic leverage in rare-earth supplies.
Taken together, accelerated modernization of nuclear delivery systems, expanded combined training, and integrated cyber-defence posture are reshaping deterrence dynamics and raising the risk calculus for escalation in the region.