Rare earth equities rallied as U.S. policy, defense contracts and China's export licensing reshaped supply‑chain risk and investor positioning.
U.S. rare earth and strategic-metals equities closed 2025 with heightened volatility as policy moves, defense contracts and China’s export rules reshaped supply risk.
MP Materials led gains after a year of rallying investor expectations—its shares climbed sharply amid public‑private defence partnerships and long‑term offtake commitments, leaving valuation metrics stretched and traders awaiting fresh catalysts. Junior developer USA Rare Earth logged smaller gains but remains a policy‑driven speculation: its market value rests on potential Department of Defense support before commercial production begins.
Outside rare earth magnets, strategic metals such as antimony attracted attention after United States Antimony secured a multi‑year Defense Logistics Agency contract and announced plans to expand smelter capacity. Such procurement deals illustrate how government demand now moves markets as much as commodity fundamentals.
Beijing’s recent signals on streamlined export licensing for approved buyers have calmed some near‑term concerns, but analysts warn the underlying drive to diversify supply chains persists. Neodymium prices remain well above year‑ago levels, reinforcing investment interest in mine‑to‑magnet projects.
Looking to 2026, key triggers include export‑licensing developments, new stockpiling or subsidy programs, integrated processing projects, and defense procurement outcomes that will determine winners and losers in this policy‑sensitive sector.