MP Materials expanded domestic rare‑earth production, secured a DOD equity and purchase deal, and won an Apple recycled‑magnet contract amid execution risks.
MP Materials, operator of the Mountain Pass rare‑earth mine in California, has solidified a pivotal role in U.S. rare‑earth magnet supply as policymakers push to diversify away from Chinese dominance.
The company reported a record 721 metric tons of neodymium‑praseodymium (NdPr) oxide in Q3, up 51% year‑over‑year, and is expanding downstream magnet production. Its Fort Worth plant aims for 3,000 metric tons of magnets annually, and a planned 10X Facility would raise U.S. magnet capacity to about 10,000 metric tons per year.
In July MP struck a multibillion‑dollar public‑private deal with the Department of Defense that gives the DOD a 15% stake. The DOD will purchase facility output on a cost‑plus basis starting Oct. 1, establishes a $110 price floor, and guarantees the 10X Facility a minimum annual EBITDA of $140 million. MP also reached an agreement to supply Apple with U.S.‑made magnets from 100% recycled materials, with shipments expected to begin in 2027.
Analysts forecast EPS rising from about $0.56 next year to $1.12 by 2027, implying roughly a 52× forward valuation. Federal backing improves visibility, but execution risk and pronounced share‑price volatility remain key investor considerations.