IMF Sees Resilient Global Growth, Warns on Trade Risks
10/15/2025, 7:03:16 PM | China | United States
Military & Defense
IMF raises 2025 growth slightly but warns trade tensions and rare‑earth controls could dent output and complicate supply chains.
The IMF projects global growth of 3.2% in 2025, a slight downgrade from 2024 but a 0.2 percentage point upgrade from its July forecast, signaling more resilience than expected.
Officials cautioned that the tariff shock has so far been muted, helped by exemptions, firms stockpiling ahead of deadlines, and strong U.S. investment in artificial intelligence, but warned of downside risks that could shave about 0.2% off global output by the end of 2026.
U.S.-China trade tensions remain central: effective tariffs on Chinese imports peaked in spring and a recent 90‑day truce runs through Nov. 10. Beijing announced broad rare‑earth export controls last week—targeting sectors including military and defense—and Washington has signaled a conditional plan to add 100% tariffs on Nov. 1 if restrictions proceed.
The IMF now forecasts U.S. growth at 2.0% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, down from 2.8% in 2024, while revising inflation higher. A drop of roughly 1.1 million foreign‑born workers this year may act as an additional negative supply shock.
New levies on timber and lumber of 10–50% add supply‑chain complexity. Economists recommend clearer multilateral trade rules and stronger partner networks to bolster resilience.