Haven Flows and Western ETF Surge Propel Gold to Three-Week High Amid Weak Data and Iran Tensions

Gold futures charged higher on Monday, securing a three-week high near $5205 before settling at $5199.71 with a 1.81% daily gain, as a potent mix of safe-haven demand and shifting investor flows overwhelmed countervailing pressures from currency strength. The core driver lies in escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S.-Iran frictions that have traders piling into bullion as a premier refuge, evidenced by repeated intraday surges on haven bids amid steady focus on these flashpoints. This safe-haven narrative gained extra thrust from fresh U.S. economic data revealing weakness in services and manufacturing sectors, sparking fears of economic slowdown and prompting bargain hunting that amplified the upside momentum.

Western investors, absent from the gold market for three years, dramatically reversed course with 240 tons of ETF purchases through mid-period, more than half recouping prior sales and injecting fresh bullish conviction. Institutional heavyweights like SPDR Gold Shares saw $8.65 billion in net inflows, predominantly from portfolio hedges against equities, forex volatility, and rates uncertainty, underscoring gold's role as a multifaceted diversifier. This swing from net sellers to aggressive buyers marks a seismic shift, with analysts noting its outsized price impact compared to steady central bank accumulation.

Emerging market central banks sustained their diversification push, netting 328 tonnes in December amid de-dollarization accelerated by U.S. fiscal deficits, Russian asset seizures, and tariff aggressions, viewing gold as insulation from sanctions and dollar debasement. Stablecoin giants like Tether bolstered this, holding 148 tonnes as a top non-sovereign buyer. Market psychology flipped decisively bullish, with Wall Street bears capitulating after gold breached $5100 amid Iran escalations, while Main Street held firm, aligning with record ETF assets under management at $669 billion.

Despite DXY resilience and Treasury yield wobbles tied to fiscal concerns, real yields failed to cap the rally, as Fed independence limits policy pivots amid structural liquidity needs. Scotiabank affirms the bull cycle's endurance, projecting further gains on these entrenched drivers, positioning gold for sustained strength barring major de-escalations.