EDC Reaffirms US$300m for Arafura’s Nolans Project

Export Development Canada (EDC) has reaffirmed its US$300 million loan commitment to Arafura Rare Earths for the Nolans NdPr project, with terms unchanged and loan documentation advancing alongside lender work programs. ING has also signalled ongoing support as the company approaches a Final Investment Decision (FID).

The reconfirmation preserves consortium continuity but does not provide new capital or guarantee an FID. Critical questions remain: how Arafura will secure the remaining construction financing, the project’s exposure to NdPr price volatility, potential additional involvement from U.S. or Australian export/finance agencies, and whether capex escalation has been fully contained after prior revisions.

Nolans is among the most advanced Western NdPr projects and is strategically important for electric-vehicle and defense magnet supply chains. Arafura, however, is still pre-revenue; valuation and timing depend on offtake certainty, sovereign-aligned funding and execution readiness.

Market response has been muted: ARU traded in a downtrend through 2025 and analyst ratings remain cautious (Hold, A$0.19 target). EDC’s reconfirmation is encouraging for lender stability but is a necessary, not sufficient, step toward de-risking the project and unlocking construction finance.