China may bar U.S. defense firms from rare-earth imports

China is drafting a system to restrict access to refined rare-earth metals for U.S. defense contractors while smoothing shipments to vetted commercial buyers.

The proposal centers on a “validated end‑user” regime that would preauthorize approved companies for routine shipments and explicitly blacklist entities with military ties. The approach appears modeled on existing U.S. validated end‑user processes but inverts access controls to advance Beijing’s strategic priorities.

Rare‑earth elements are critical both for consumer electronics and for advanced military platforms—permanent magnets, sensors and guidance electronics in fighters, submarines and missiles depend on them. The elements themselves are widely distributed geologically, but refinement and separation are capital- and pollution‑intensive; China still dominates refinement, accounting for roughly 90% of global processing capacity.

In October Beijing moved to require special licenses for shipments containing more than 0.1% rare‑earth content, though implementation was delayed for a year after high‑level talks. Analysts warn tighter export controls could pose an existential supply‑chain risk for U.S. defense programs.

Washington is pursuing diversification—agreements with Kazakhstan and Ukraine and efforts to expand allied and domestic processing capacity—to reduce dependence on Chinese refinement while the specifics of Beijing’s validated list remain unclear.